Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata     

Tingting Xu  Jay Gao  Giovanni Coco 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1960-1983

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.  相似文献   

历史名人轨迹的空间可视化与分析     

王妮满  秦昆  罗俊  陈昆  胡圣 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(5):978-988

历史名人的行为轨迹反映了当时的历史文化背景,通过历史名人行为轨迹的空间化和可视化,可以对历史社会状态进行探索和分析。对历史名人的社交关系网络进行可视化研究,有利于剖析当时的政治背景与人物关系。目前,基于GIS的空间人文社会科学深层次分析方法和工具还很少,根据地理位置对历史人物的社交网络进行分时段的研究也很少。本文以玄奘和欧阳修为例,探索了基于WebGIS的历史人物轨迹空间可视化分析方法,基于核密度估计与标准差椭圆的空间分析方法,分析历史名人轨迹点的空间分布特征,统计迁徙指数、首都距、家乡距、成长地距以分析基于距离的轨迹点移动特点;分时段构建了历史名人的空间社交网络,并结合历史背景、名人事迹、名人作品和空间化结果进行了综合分析。分析结果表明： ① 历史名人的迁移轨迹与当时的历史人口迁移趋势基本是一致的,受社会变动影响较大;② 历史名人在事业上升期有更大的社交网络圈,而在人生没落阶段社交网络圈减小。本文对历史名人轨迹的空间可视化与分析方法进行了探索,可以为空间人文社会科学相关领域的分析研究提供参考。  相似文献   

Fiscal geographies: “Placing” taxation in urban geography     

Renee Tapp  Kelly Kay 《Urban geography》2019,40(4):573-581

As the state’s primary means of both redistributing wealth and incentivizing private investment, tax plays an outsized role in a range of critical urban processes, including (re)development, gentrification, financialization, and local and regional governance. We argue, through reference to existing literature in urban and economic geography, as well as our own research on taxation and the state, that urban scholarship could benefit by close and careful engagement with taxation and the tax system. We term this new vein of research “fiscal geographies” and see it as offering potential for more nuanced study of urban political economy, politics, and processes.  相似文献   

中国企业R&D国际化:时空格局与区位选择影响因素     

胡曙虹  杜德斌  范蓓蕾 《地理研究》2019,38(7):1733-1748

基于中国企业海外R&D投资数据和零断尾负二项回归分析方法,探讨了1998—2015年中国企业R&D国际化的时空格局特征,并从东道国角度分析影响其区位选择的主要因素。结果表明：研究期内中国新建海外R&D机构数量快速扩张;海外R&D投资区域分布广泛,呈现分散和集聚并存的特征;以华为为例分析了典型中国企业海外R&D投资的空间布局特征,认为目前华为海外R&D投资呈现集中布局在欧洲,零散分布在亚洲、美洲、非洲的空间特征,主要是由其以全球技术升级和满足多样化的市场需求等R&D国际化的战略动机所决定。回归分析结果表明,中国企业对发达国家和发展中国家进行R&D投资的影响因素有共同点但也存在一定的差异：① 现阶段东道国的R&D需求不是影响中国企业对其进行R&D投资的主要因素;② 代表中国与东道国经济往来密切程度的关联要素是影响中国企业R&D投资的重要决策因素;③ 发达国家吸引中国企业对其进行R&D投资主要是因其创新能力强、R&D资源数量多,而政策及制度供给是影响中国企业对发展中国家进行R&D投资的主要因素;④ 地理距离对中国企业R&D“走出去”的阻碍作用主要体现在对发展中国家的R&D投资中。  相似文献   

Detecting arbitrarily shaped clusters in origin-destination flows using ant colony optimization     

Ci Song  Ting Ma  Yunyan Du  Hua Shu  Sihui Guo 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(1):134-154

An origin-destination (OD) flow can be defined as the movement of objects between two locations. These movements must be determined for a range of purposes, and strong interactions can be visually represented via clustering of OD flows. Identification of such clusters may be useful in urban planning, traffic planning and logistics management research. However, few methods can identify arbitrarily shaped flow clusters. Here, we present a spatial scan statistical approach based on ant colony optimization (ACO) for detecting arbitrarily shaped clusters of OD flows (AntScan_flow). In this study, an OD flow cluster is defined as a regional pair with significant log likelihood ratio (LLR), and the ACO is employed to detect the clusters with maximum LLRs in the search space. Simulation experiments based on AntScan_flow and SaTScan_flow show that AntScan_flow yields better performance based on accuracy but requires a large computational demand. Finally, a case study of the morning commuting flows of Beijing residents was conducted. The AntScan_flow results show that the regions associated with moderate- and long-distance commuting OD flow clusters are highly consistent with subway lines and highways in the city. Additionally, the regions of short-distance commuting OD flow clusters are more likely to exhibit ‘residential-area to work-area’ patterns.  相似文献   

“一带一路”背景下中国国际航空网络的空间格局及演变     

杜方叶  王姣娥  谢家昊  杜德林 《地理科学进展》2019,38(7):963-972

2013年“一带一路”倡议提出将设施联通作为合作战略重点之一,航空网络作为设施联通的重要组成部分,其地位提升到新的高度。为评估“一带一路”倡议的提出对中国国际航空网络的影响,论文选取了2013年和2018年数据,从国际航线、国际航班以及通航城市3个方面分析“一带一路”倡议提出以来中国国际航空网络的空间格局及其演变特征。研究结果表明：① 整体上来看,“一带一路”倡议并未从根本上改变中国国际航空网络的空间格局,仍以东亚、东南亚、美国以及俄罗斯等地区和国家为主,5 a来其变化主要集中在进一步加深与已有城市的联系;② 从沿线国家来看,一带一路”倡议增加了与中国直接通航的沿线国家数量,并提升了沿线国家在中国国际航空网络中的地位;③ 越来越多的境内城市参与到中国对外开放格局中,且航线和航班在北京、上海、广州的聚集程度下降,而其他城市的航线和航班占比逐渐增加。  相似文献   

城市地理研究中的单分形、多分形和自仿射分形   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈彦光 《地理科学进展》2019,38(1):38-49

分形几何学在城市地理研究中具有广泛的应用,然而很多基本概念却让初学者感到迷惑。如何区分单分形、自仿射分形与多分形,是一个基本而重要的问题。简单分形容易理解,而真实的地理现象很少是单分形的。城市生长过程具有自仿射特征,而城市空间格局却具有多分形性质。作者发现,各种分形的共性在于三个方面：标度律、分数维和熵守恒。论文基于标度、分维和熵守恒公式,借助隐喻城市生长的规则分形来区分单分形、多分形和自仿射分形,讨论分形系统演化的机理、分形与空间自相关和空间异质性的联系,同时澄清一些在地理分形研究中的常见错误概念。最后以城市位序-规模分布为例,说明并对比单分形和多分形在城市地理研究中的建模与应用思路。  相似文献   

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia     

Tesfahun BERHANE  Aemiro SHIBABAW  Gurju AWGICHEW 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):415-423

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.  相似文献   

Responding to Global Warming: Mitigation Policies and Actions of Stakeholders in China’s Tourism Industry     

FENG Ling  CHEN Da  GAO Shan  WANG Yongzhi  TANG Chengcai 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):94-103

China’s tourism industry has witnessed rapid progress in recent years, and is now an important part of global tourism in dealing with climate change. Within a framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR), this paper focuses on the emission reduction pressure, carbon emission status, and responses of stakeholders in China’s tourism industry. Findings include: 1) The central government’s strategy and rapid growth of the industry scale exert rising pressure on China’s tourism to reduce carbon emissions. 2) Carbon emissions of China's tourism account for 13%-14.6% of global tourism, and about 3% of China’s emissions overall. Chinese tourists’ per capita carbon emission is lower than half of the global level. 3) The Chinese government attaches great importance to energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. In the tourism industry, documents, standards and other regulative measures have been issued to ensure that business practitioners set up green operational and managerial systems. In the field of tourism transportation, China's high-speed rail, new energy vehicles, and urban shared bicycles, have developed very rapidly in recent years, and they have effectively reduced the carbon emissions in traveling. Furthermore, this paper finds that Chinese tourists already have awareness and willingness for low-carbon tourism.  相似文献   

珠江三角洲地区登革热流行风险空间模拟与预测     

郑斓  任红艳  施润和  鲁亮 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(3):407-416

近年来日益严重的登革热疫情已在中国南部地区形成疫情高发区,并对中国的公共卫生安全形成了一定的威胁。登革热主要受到区域内复杂的自然环境条件以及社会经济因素的影响,而利用地理空间分析方法和模型探究登革热疫情的影响因素,并对其未来流行风险的空间分布进行模拟,是有效开展登革热预防控制工作的重要基础。本文收集了珠江三角洲地区2010-2014年的登革热病例资料和土地利用、人口密度两种社会经济要素数据,构建土地利用回归（LUR）模型以分析登革热疫情与不同空间范围内的土地利用和人口密度之间的关系,并结合SLEUTH模型获取的2030年土地利用数据以及基于人口密度预测模型获取的2030年人口密度数据,预测珠江三角洲地区2030年登革热疫情风险的空间分布。结果表明,社会经济要素对登革热疫情空间分布的影响在不同范围内存在差异,半径分别为10、7、10、2和1 km的缓冲区内的人口密度、草地、城镇用地、林地和耕地进入LUR模型并对疫情有显著的影响（相关系数分别为0.779、-0.473、0.818、-0.642和-0.403）,所构建的LUR模型效果较好（调整R²为0.796,F=390.409,P<0.01）,留一交叉检验结果显示模型的相对均方根误差为0.7046,预测值与实测值的拟合精度达到0.7101。2030年城市空间扩展的区域主要分布在深圳、东莞以及广佛的交界地区,而登革热风险预测模型表明2030年登革热疫情风险较大的区域与珠江三角洲城镇用地占比、人口分布较高的地区有高度的一致性,尤其是广佛地区。因此,LUR模型可以较好地预测登革热疫情的空间分布,从而为当地卫生部门防控登革热提供方法支持。  相似文献